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Feb 14, 2026
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AVOID
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"The Pentagon added Alibaba, Baidu, and others to a list of... companies that aid the Chinese military only to pull it later." Even though the list was withdrawn, the "indecision" signals that these companies are in the crosshairs of US Defense policy. Institutional capital cannot safely hold assets that are at risk of immediate sanctions or forced divestment by the Pentagon. AVOID. The regulatory overhang is too dangerous despite valuation. US-China relations thaw unexpectedly, leading to a relief rally. |
Bloomberg Markets
Clock Ticks Down to Partial Shutdown Deadline...
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Feb 11, 2026
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SHORT
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Trump visited a Ford Motor plant and called the USMCA agreement "irrelevant." Legacy US automakers have deeply integrated cross-border supply chains with Canada and Mexico. If USMCA is scrapped or borders are thickened by tariffs/blockades, production costs for Ford and GM will spike, and logistics will become chaotic. SHORT / AVOID. The auto sector cannot efficiently operate without the certainty of the trilateral trade agreement. Trump may offer specific subsidies or exemptions to US-domiciled manufacturers that offset tariff pain. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Privately Weighs Quitting USMCA Trade P...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Netanyahu is introducing "new military intelligence regarding Iran's military capabilities" and pushing to expand negotiations to include "ballistic missile program" and "proxy militia groups." While initial talks were "positive," Israel's introduction of new intelligence suggests a hawkish pivot or an attempt to derail a soft deal. Increased tension in the Middle East typically bids up Defense stocks (ITA) and adds a geopolitical risk premium to Oil (XLE). LONG. Hedge against the failure of US-Iran bilateral talks. A surprise diplomatic breakthrough that eases sanctions on Iran would be bearish for oil prices. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Privately Weighs Quitting USMCA Trade P...
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Feb 11, 2026
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SHORT
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Trump is "privately mulling potentially exiting the USMCA" and has recently threatened "100% tariffs over Canada's pact with China" and "50% tariffs targeted at Canadian aircraft." The Canadian economy is existentially dependent on access to the US market. Even the *threat* of USMCA dissolution or 100% tariffs creates a massive risk premium for Canadian equities (EWC) and the Canadian Dollar (short via FXC). SHORT Canada. The uncertainty regarding the $2 trillion trade relationship is a direct headwind for the TSX and CAD. Trump's threats could be purely negotiating leverage ("posturing") that resolves quickly, causing a relief rally. |
Bloomberg Markets
Trump Privately Weighs Quitting USMCA Trade P...
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